Archives » Trump

The Evolution of Competition

Posted on February 7, 2017

The Trump presidency is breaking us. Not because of the specifics of his policies or whether they’re right or wrong or anything like that. It’s breaking us because we now routinely talk past or yell at our friends, family, and fellow citizens, despite vast common ground on the really big ideas of what it means to be Americans or, more fundamentally still, a good human being. Game theory can’t solve this growing discordance or reverse the evolution of competition, but it can identify the issue and maybe, just maybe, show us ways to mitigate the damage.

American Hustle

Posted on November 17, 2016

epsilon-theory-american-hustle-november-17-2016-the-stingThree questions to answer today: what did the Narrative Machine tell us about the market immediately before and immediately after the November 8 election, what am I preparing for now as an investor, and what am I preparing for now as a citizen? I’m giddy about the first, quietly confident about the second, and pretty darn depressed about the third. Could be worse, I suppose.

  1. The Narrative Machine gave clear, actionable, and non-consensus signals prior to the U.S. election last week.
  2. Yes, the Trump reform and infrastructure Growth Narrative is a tailwind for stocks and a headwind for bonds for the next four years. And yes, the overwhelmingly negative constraints that massive global debt places on global growth is still a headwind for stocks and a tailwind for bonds for the next four years.
  3. Trump breaks our political culture. Politics is no longer a “marketplace of ideas” when you think the other side is comprised of bad guys. Politics becomes a zero-sum Competitive Game of self-defense, which means that anything — anything! — goes.

Epsilon Theory Email Alerts

Your Information:

First Name*
Last Name*
Title
Email*
Company