The market volatility that characterized most of February carried into March. Global stocks declined -2.21% led by a selloff in Japan, which declined by -2.79%. The decline was exacerbated only slightly by a decrease in the yen versus the U.S. dollar. Europe was the best performing segment of global stocks, declining -1.20%. However, the increase of the euro relative the U.S. dollar accounted for a substantial portion of the relative outperformance; in local currency, European stocks declined -2.02% for the month. Emerging markets gave up some of their year-to-date relative outperformance and declined -1.99% as the weight of a possible trade war dragged down Chinese stocks. U.S. stocks continued to be a market underperformer, declining -2.54% as the potential for a protracted trade war with China also weighed on future growth. On a bright note, small-cap U.S. stocks performed well with a gain of 1.29%. Defensive sectors rebounded as interest rates stabilized during the month with U.S. real estate increasing by 3.78% and utilities increasing by 3.76%.

The global stock market declined -4.20% in the month of February, putting an end to the historic run. Overall, global stocks had a maximum drawdown of -9.02% from the January 26th high, but recovered some of that loss through the rest of February. There were few places to hide from the sell-off as European stocks fell 5.88% and Japanese stocks fell -1.51%. However, the impact of currencies was more mixed in February than it has been in past months. The yen declined against the U.S. dollar in February, so local investors realized a loss of -3.71%. European investors, on the other hand, realized a better relative return of -3.69% due to the appreciation of the euro relative the U.S. dollar. U.S. stocks outperformed their foreign counterparts with a loss of -3.69% while small-cap U.S. stocks declined -3.87%. The sell-off took a toll on energy stocks, which were just starting to climb out of their rut in January, declining -10.84% in February, as measured by the S&P 500 Energy Sector.

Global stocks finished at a gain of 5.64% in the month of January, just slightly off their all-time high. Emerging market (EM) stocks led the way once again with a gain of 8.33%.Europe and Japan also marked strong gains for the month with an increase of 5.40% and 4.58%, respectively.However, much of these gains (greater than half) can be attributed to appreciation of the local currency. While appreciation of EM currency relative to other major currencies did push prices, these markets would have still outperformed all developed markets. This distinction is crucial since the performance of EM stocks appears to be organic while other foreign markets are largely a function of appreciating currencies, a dynamic that may or may not persist over time. U.S. stocks fared well in January with again of 5.73% while small-cap U.S. stocks increased by 2.61%. There has been a notable improvement in the performance of energy stocks following a weak 2017.Strength in this part of the market could help keep the overall stock market rising.

In the third part of this series, we extended our simple ranking system to include risk targeting. This extended analysis produced a portfolio that could deliver higher risk-adjusted returns than a simple ranking system and still deliver a yield in excess of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index. In the final part of this series we will look at the same strategy and examine its sensitivity to changes in interest rates.

In part 1 of this blog series, we looked at using simple moving averages as a guide to determining an allocation to stocks or bonds. The results of our simulation showed that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by incorporating a more active approach into an otherwise static investment process.